There’s a cloud hanging over this weekend’s Belmont Stakes, and not only the metaphorical one that won’t disperse following the death of a dozen horses at Churchill Downs last month. No, this cloud is a physical one, a smoky, sometimes gray, sometimes orange, often acrid cloud floating down from Canada due to the wildfires in Québec.
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Horse racing is alit with speculation about whether the dangerous air quality will lead to cancellations at Belmont Park, on Saturday or in the days leading up to it. The racing card did get canceled for Thursday.
On Wednesday, air quality in the New York metropolitan area reached historically dangerous levels, with several sports organizations postponing scheduled contests. Current forecasts suggest that the smoke will begin to dissipate over the next couple of days, although its ill effects will be felt through Sunday.
In a statement, a New York Racing Association spokesperson said, “NYRA utilizes external weather services and advanced on-site equipment to monitor weather conditions and air quality in and around Belmont Park. Training was normally conducted (Thursday), and NYRA will continue to assess the overall environment to ensure the safety of training and racing throughout the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.”
Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 7:02 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 10. The Belmont is the 12th on a 13-race card.
Unlike the first two legs of the Triple Crown, which NBC broadcasted, the Belmont will be shown simultaneously on two Fox properties, Fox and FS1. The latter hosts a year-round live show from New York Racing Association tracks (Aqueduct Race Track, Belmont Park, and Saratoga Race Course) on most racing days.
Both stations will offer coverage from 4-7 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Fox show will feature Curt Menefee, thoroughbred trainer Tom Amoss, jockey Mike Smith, Chris Fallica and Charissa Thompson, while the broadcast on FS1 will be tailored to horseplayers.
There’s a chance of afternoon showers on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but it doesn’t appear at this point that the horses will be running on an off-track. If that changes, we’ll update the analysis to include the mudders in the field.
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1 – Tapit Shoes
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: José L. Ortiz
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 5-1-1-1
One of two horses in the race sired by Tapit, who counts four Belmont Stakes winners among his progeny (Tonalist 2014, Creator 2016, Tapwrit 2017 and Essential Quality (2021), and one of three trained by Cox, who won this race in 2021. He’s never run in, let alone won, a graded stakes race, though he does have arguably the best rider in the country on his back and distance pedigree on both sire and dam sides. Post position one isn’t as much of a drawback in a 10-furlong race as it might be at shorter distances, and while I will likely pass on him as a winner, I’ll use him underneath in exactas and triples.
2 – Tapit Trice
Odds: 3-1
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Record: 6-4-0-1
Tapit’s second runner in this year’s Belmont and first of two for trainer Todd Pletcher. He cost $1.3 million as a yearling and has banked nearly $900,000 in a six-race career; he was most recently seventh in the Kentucky Derby, the only time that he’s finished out of the top three. He’s won as both a closer and a stalker, and I expect him to be a major player on Saturday.
3 – Arcangelo
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Jena M. Antonucci
Record: 4-2-1-0
This lightly raced gray ridgling demonstrated that he belongs in this race with a win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan at Belmont last month. He cost $35,000 at auction and is sired by the late stallion Arrogate, who retired with $17 million in earnings and an Eclipse Award for champion three-year-old colt. Arcangelo’s damsire is Tapit, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem for him. Trainer Antonucci is trying both to earn her first Grade 1 win and to become the first female trainer to win the Belmont.
4 – National Treasure
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Record: 6-2-1-2
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The Preakness winner comes back on three weeks rest after passing on the Kentucky Derby, and he’s back in the barn of trainer Bob Baffert (Tim Yakteen had briefly trained him in an attempt to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points, which Baffert is banned by Churchill Downs from doing). He does his best running on the lead, which is generally not a winning strategy in the Belmont, especially given the mile-and-a-half track configuration, which can fake out jockeys into going too fast too soon. That is unlikely to happen to John Velazquez, who’s won seven riding titles at Belmont Park and has twice won this race. I’m going with the angle in which the added distance and the short rest will do him.
5 – Il Miracolo
Odds:30-1
Jockey: Marcos Meneses
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Record: 10-2-3-0
He’s never shown even remotely that he can compete with horses at this level; the jockey is inexperienced at Belmont, and even though he’s got Tapit in his pedigree on his mother’s side, that’s not enough for me to back him. If he wins, it will indeed be a miracolo.
6 – Forte
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Record: 7-6-0-0
What to make of Forte? He was the likely Kentucky Derby winner until he was scratched the morning of the race by vets at Churchill Downs, due to a bruised foot; because that scratch landed him on the vets’ list, he couldn’t come back two weeks later to run in the Preakness. So now we have a seriously talented horse that hasn’t run since April 1; that is recovering (or has recovered) from an injured hoof; and was recently seen stumbling during morning training at Belmont Park, as he did during Derby training. We’ve also learned since the Derby that his Grade 1 win in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last summer is in jeopardy due to a medication positive and disqualification that is being appealed by his connections. Can his talent overcome all of this? If he’s healthy and fit, it’s his race to lose.
7 – Hit Show
Odds: 10-1
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 6-3-1-0
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: this Belmont runner has Tapit in his pedigree. He put together an impressive string of races, including a nose loss in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, before finishing fifth in the Derby. His stalking style suits this race, and I’d say he’s in with a better chance to finish underneath than to win, but you can’t overlook him.
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8 – Angel of Empire
Odds: 7-2
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 7-4-1-1
He ran a terrific race in the Derby to finish third by a length and a half, and he’ll once again be ridden by Prat, who’s been aboard for his best races. He’s a stalking/closer type whose running style will suit this race. Must-use on your tickets.
9 – Red Route One
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Record: 10-2-2-1
Back two weeks after a fourth-place finish in the Preakness, still winless in seven graded stakes attempts. He’s beautifully bred, with a Breeders’ Cup Classic winning sire and – say it with me – Tapit on his dam side. He’s a competitive, reasonably talented horse that is overmatched here.
(Top Photo of Tapit Trice: Al Bello / Getty Images; Photo of National Treasure: Rob Carr/ Getty Images)
Teresa Genaro is a contributor to The Athletic's horse racing coverage. A veteran turf writer, she has published work in The New York Times, The Guardian, Bloodhorse magazine, The Racing Biz, and New York Breeder and was featured in the PBS documentaries The Track at Saratoga: America's Grandest Race Course and Old Bones: The Story of Exterminator. She co-hosted a web series for The Racing Biz on diversity and equity in the horse racing industry. A native of Saratoga Springs, she teaches high school English in Brooklyn.
